Updated on: 2026-01-27 As of: 2026-01-27 Latest price: Rs 580 (NSE) as of 2026-01-27 Market cap: Rs 5,200 crore Latest earnings period: H1 FY26 (ended Sep 30, 2025) Key sources: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/borosil-renewables-swings-to-26-crore-profit-in-q2-fy26/125244786; https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/borosil-renew-consolidated-september-2025-net-sales-at-rs-378-88-crore-up-1-73-y-o-y-13680765.html; https://borosilrenewables.com/investor/financial-information

Event: Borosil Renewables reported Q2 FY26 consolidated net profit of ₹26 crore vs loss of ₹10 crore in Q2 FY25, with revenue at ₹379 crore (up 1.6% YoY) and expenses down to ₹286 crore due to lower input/energy costs. Date: October 2025 (results for quarter ended Sep 30, 2025) Why the Market Reacted: Investors focused on the profit swing after prolonged losses, signaling potential margin recovery amid export push, driving short-term stock optimism. Why This Is Not Just News: Q2 profitability masks H1 FY26 overall loss of ₹140 crore (wider than ₹23 crore YoY); this piece tests if cost reductions are sustainable against export dependency risks and global PV glass oversupply.

Can Borosil Renewables sustain export-led margin recovery and 20%+ capacity utilization without Chinese dumping eroding pricing power or domestic PLI benefits fading?

Borosil Renewables generates ~95% revenue from solar glass—patterned sheets essential for PV module encapsulation—sold to module makers in India, US, and Europe. The model hinges on high fixed costs: raw materials (soda ash ~40% of costs, natural gas ~20%) pass through variably, but capacity expansions (from 1.5GW to 3GW+ annualized by FY26) demand 75-85% utilization for breakeven. Profits flow from export premiums (10-15% over domestic) amid India's PLI-driven module localization, but volumes depend on global PV demand (India ~20GW installs/year). Domestic sales (~40% mix) benefit from 40% local content rules, yet face Chinese imports at 20-30% lower prices unless ALMM enforcement holds. Key margin driver: energy efficiency in furnaces (recent upgrades cut costs 10-15%), but debt-funded capex (₹500+ crore FY25) sustains interest at ₹30-40 crore annually. Unlike diversified glass peers, Borosil's 100% solar focus amplifies cyclicality—PV glass prices fell 40% in FY24 oversupply, squeezing EBITDA to 5%. Sustainability rests on export diversification (US IRA benefits via thinner glass tech) unless Southeast Asia capacities (Vietnam/Indonesia) flood markets. Thesis fails if utilization dips below 70% or soda ash exceeds ₹30,000/tonne for 2+ quarters.

Revenue growth slowed to 8% in FY25 amid PV glut, with H1 FY26 flat YoY signaling weak demand; EBITDA volatility (negative H1) reflects 40% input cost swings, while persistent losses erode equity (ROCE <3%). Debt coverage weakens if EBITDA stays below ₹100 crore annually.

Market fixates on Q2 profit as 'turnaround,' overlooking H1 FY26's ₹140 crore loss—wider than prior year—driven by Q1 weakness from delayed exports and 60% utilization. Investors assume 15% EBITDA margins normalize via US/Europe premiums, but ignore Chinese firms shifting to India/Vietnam, potentially capping ASP at ₹45-50/sq.m (vs ₹55+ needed). Soda ash prices, down 20% in H2 FY25, could rebound 30% on global shortages, erasing cost savings unless hedged (company has limited forwards). Export growth (50%+ YoY Q2) banks on US IRA, but if tariffs hit Indian glass or module makers pivot to local suppliers, volumes drop 20-30%. Domestic PLI (~₹20,000 crore incentives) props module demand, yet SEBI scrutiny on promoter pledging (25% shares) risks forced selling in downturns. Non-consensus: High capex (₹300 crore FY26) assumes 25% CAGR volumes, but global PV capacity additions (800GW by 2026) risk 15-20% glass oversupply, pressuring utilization below 70% and forcing price cuts. Thesis fragility: Margins revert unless exports hit 60% mix and ALMM survives court challenges.

Negative TTM P/E masks FY26E pricing of ₹10+ EPS (25% growth, 15% margins), but at 60x, assumes flawless execution; de-rating to 30x (peers) implies 50% downside if EBITDA disappoints by 20%. Premium to glass peers bakes in solar growth, vulnerable to cycle trough.

Base case (50%) assumes 20% volume growth, 10% margins on exports; bull needs US deals and PLI extension (25%); bear (25%) from oversupply or raw material spike. Expected value tilts neutral unless Q3 utilization >80%.

• Soda ash >₹35,000/tonne for 2 quarters or utilization <70% invalidates margin recovery
• SEBI probe into PLI compliance or ALMM revocation floods market with cheap imports
• Debt/EBITDA >3x from capex overruns, triggering covenant breach amid 15% interest rates

Borosil trades at 2.5x peer EV/EBITDA premium for solar purity, justified only if margins hit 15% sustainably; discount warranted on higher debt and cyclicality vs diversified peers.

• Q3 FY26 utilization % and export mix (target >50%)
• Management guidance on soda ash hedging and capex deferrals
• PLI scheme extensions or ALMM policy changes via MNRE notifications

Borosil Renewables' Q2 profit highlights export potential in a PLI-backed solar ecosystem, but the core debate centers on margin durability amid global oversupply and input volatility—current valuation prices aggressive 20% CAGR without buffers for setbacks. Uncertainty looms from Chinese capacity shifts and raw material rebounds, with H1 FY26 losses underscoring execution risks despite capex scale-up. Investors should track Q3 utilization >75%, export realizations >₹50/sq.m, and debt metrics; thesis holds if EBITDA doubles FY27 to ₹200 crore, but fails below ₹100 crore, risking 30-40% de-rating. Approach with caution—suitable for cyclical specialists monitoring PV glass ASP weekly via industry trackers.