Blinkit’s 2025 story reads like the second act of India’s internet revolution: rapid revenue growth, sharpening unit economics, and a capital‑intensive land‑grab in a winner‑takes‑most market. In Q4 FY25, Blinkit’s GOV jumped about 134% year‑on‑year to roughly ₹9,421 crore, with quarterly revenue growing 122% YoY to about ₹1,709 crore and full‑year FY24 revenue near ₹2,301 crore.[1] Market‑share estimates put Blinkit at around 45% of India’s quick commerce orders, against Swiggy Instamart at ~27% and Zepto at ~21%.[1][4] The platform is targeting close to 2,000 dark stores by December 2025, supported by fresh capital infusion from Eternal.[1][6]

Did you know that analysts expect Blinkit’s quick commerce sales to grow nearly 5x from about ₹52 billion in 2025 to roughly ₹268 billion by 2026?[4] This growth is not just volume‑driven: average order value (AOV) has risen ~17% YoY to around ₹627 per order, while delivery cost per order has fallen about 14% to roughly ₹55, indicating improving operating leverage.[1][4]

Blinkit’s CEO has warned of a sharp correction in India’s quick commerce if funding continues to tighten, arguing that unprofitable discount‑led growth cannot last.[3] Yet, brokerages such as Bernstein see Blinkit as the long‑term frontrunner, citing superior execution and healthier unit economics, while flagging that sustained investment will still be needed before the business turns structurally free‑cash‑flow positive.[3][4]

Blinkit’s business model sits at the intersection of modern retail, logistics and advertising. At its core, Blinkit earns gross margin on products sold plus platform and advertising income, while paying for procurement, dark store operations, delivery, technology and overheads. The target is to generate positive contribution margin per order and expand EBITDA as scale builds.

Key revenue levers: - Commerce margin: Buying from FMCG brands, local wholesalers and fresh‑produce aggregators at wholesale prices and selling at MRP or mild discount. Gross margin can range 12–20%, depending on category mix. - Platform fees & convenience charges: Specially for small baskets, late‑night orders or surge‑pricing windows. - Advertising & brand monetisation: Sponsored listings, banner placements and sampling; already about 2.4% of GOV per recent estimates, with significant upside.[1]

On the cost side, quick commerce is brutally execution‑intensive: - Dark store costs: Rent, fit‑out, utilities and staff at each micro‑warehouse. - Delivery logistics: Per‑order payout to gig workers plus incentive top‑ups; Blinkit and Zomato together reportedly spend over ₹100 crore annually on insurance coverage for delivery partners.[5] - Central overheads and tech: Product, data science, routing algorithms, and central support.

Broker commentary suggests Blinkit was expected to reach EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY25, supported by higher AOV and lower delivery costs.[1][2] However, as the CEO has pointed out, entering new geographies and smaller towns requires additional dark stores and supply‑chain investment before operations become efficient.[3]

By 2025, Blinkit is transitioning from a pure growth story to a growth + profitability narrative. Sell‑side estimates and industry analysis point to rapid increases in GOV and revenue, with improving but still fragile profitability metrics.

High‑level numbers for FY25 and projections: - Q4 FY25 GOV: ≈₹9,421 crore, up ~134% YoY.[1] - Q4 FY25 revenue: ≈₹1,709 crore, up ~122% YoY.[1] - FY24 revenue: ≈₹2,301 crore.[1] - Quick commerce sales (Blinkit) expected to rise from ~₹52 billion in 2025 to ~₹268 billion in 2026.[4] - Market share: ≈45% by orders in FY25.[1]

Broker notes have forecast Blinkit’s GOV growth at around 14–15% quarter‑on‑quarter and 120%+ year‑on‑year in 2025, with an estimated adjusted EBITDA loss near ₹130 crore in one of the recent quarters.[2] This suggests operational breakeven is within sight, but net profitability will depend on how aggressively Blinkit chooses to expand dark stores and promotional spends.

From a unit economics standpoint, key KPIs to track include: - Contribution margin per order (₹ and %). - Orders per dark store per day (target >700–800 at scale in metro clusters). - Rider productivity (orders per hour) and effective delivery cost per order. - Share of GOV from high‑margin categories and ad/brand monetisation.

Blinkit operates in perhaps the most hotly contested corner of India’s consumer‑internet space. On one side is Swiggy Instamart, backed by deep pools of private capital; on the other is Zepto, one of India’s fastest unicorns, which has raised multiple large rounds and is gearing up for an IPO.[4][6] India remains one of the only major markets where rapid delivery is still scaling fast, even as Europe and parts of the US have seen quick commerce consolidations and shutdowns.[3]

Competitive dynamics in 2025: - Swiggy Instamart leverages cross‑sell from its large food‑delivery user base, similar to Eternal. - Zepto has raised roughly $800 million+ over two years, including a $450 million round in October 2025 after $350 million earlier, using this capital to expand in affluent urban pockets.[6] - Smaller players such as Dunzo and BB Now face funding constraints and are either pivoting or shrinking.

Analysts at S&P and other research houses project that quick commerce will account for up to 75% of Eternal’s sales by 2031, versus 36% for Swiggy, indicating a sharper strategic tilt for Eternal towards this segment.[4] This also means Blinkit faces a narrower margin for error: execution missteps can impact the consolidated valuation more severely than for Swiggy, which has diversified businesses including food delivery and other adjacencies.

From a global lens, India’s quick‑commerce landscape looks more rational than the early‑2020s European boom‑bust cycle. Funding is tighter, unit economics are tracked more closely, and leading players are part of larger platforms (Eternal, Swiggy) rather than standalone cash‑burning apps.[3]

Blinkit’s growth playbook for 2025–2027 hinges on three pillars: dark store expansion, improved unit economics, and a disciplined approach to discounts and funding. Eternal’s management has openly acknowledged that the earlier phase of heavy incentives inflated demand but weakened financial performance; Blinkit has since moved away from indiscriminate discounting.[3]

Expansion roadmap: - Scale to around 2,000 dark stores by end‑2025, with further growth in 2026.[1][4] - Deepen penetration in existing metros before aggressive Tier‑2/3 roll‑out. - Invest in supply‑chain technology and local sourcing to support smaller towns, as indicated by the CEO.[3]

Regulatory and social context in India is non‑trivial: - Gig‑worker welfare and labour norms are under scrutiny; Zomato and Blinkit reportedly spent over ₹100 crore on insurance coverage for delivery partners in 2025, and pay structures have drawn attention from worker groups and policymakers.[5] - Any tightening of gig‑economy regulation (social‑security contributions, minimum guarantees) could raise costs per order.

From a sustainability perspective, Blinkit’s CEO has cautioned that when an imbalance between capital and economic viability exists, corrections tend to be swift.[3] For Blinkit, avoiding a boom‑and‑bust cycle like some European peers means walking a fine line between aggressive growth and profitability.

Blinkit is not listed independently; exposure comes via Eternal’s equity, where quick commerce is rapidly becoming the primary growth engine. For Indian retail investors and professionals constructing portfolios, the key is to link Blinkit’s operating metrics to Eternal’s valuation, while respecting risk tolerance and time horizon.

Conceptually, Eternal’s valuation can be broken into: - Core food‑delivery value (mature, slower‑growth cash generator). - Blinkit quick commerce value (high‑growth, improving profitability). - Other adjacencies and investments.

While public market multiples change daily, investors can use a relative framework: - Compare Eternal’s EV/Revenue and EV/GOV multiples with global peers and upcoming Indian IPOs (Swiggy, Zepto). - Track how the Street adjusts Eternal’s target price as Blinkit’s contribution margins and EBITDA trajectory evolve.

Practical considerations for Indian investors: - Treat Eternal as a satellite allocation within an equity portfolio, not the core holding for conservative investors. - Use SIP (systematic investment) or staggered entries to average out volatility. - Track SEBI and exchange disclosures, analyst concalls and shareholder letters for Blinkit‑specific commentary.[7]