In FY25–26, Swiggy is living a paradox: revenue is compounding at over 35–50% annually across key segments, but losses are still large as it battles Blinkit, Zepto and Zomato in a winner-takes-most quick-commerce landscape.[3][4][5] Following its roughly $1.3 billion IPO in late 2024, Swiggy’s FY25 topline jumped 35% to about ₹15,226.8 crore, even as net losses widened to around ₹3,116.8 crore, driven largely by Instamart and new bets.[3][6] The investment thesis now hinges on whether its AI-first logistics engine and ONDC partnerships can bend the cost curve faster than competition.

At the operating level, there are early green shoots. In Q2 FY26, total income rose to about ₹5,620 crore (up 52.5% year-on-year), while adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed sequentially, with food delivery posting a positive adjusted EBITDA of about ₹240 crore and margins of 2.8% of GOV.[2][5] Instamart contribution margins improved roughly 200 bps quarter-on-quarter to -2.6%, with adjusted EBITDA margin at -12.1%, indicating a gradual march toward breakeven.[5]

For investors, the core question is shifting from “Can Swiggy grow?” to “Can Swiggy grow efficiently?” The answer will largely depend on three levers:

- How rapidly AI improves dispatch, routing and demand prediction, reducing delivery cost per order. - How effectively Swiggy leverages ONDC for incremental demand and asset-light expansion. - How soon Instamart and other new verticals reach contribution breakeven without crushing the balance sheet.

For Indian portfolios, Swiggy has started to resemble a high-beta, high-optionalities consumer-tech plus logistics proxy, with AI and ONDC functioning as strategic call options on future profitability.

Swiggy’s evolution from a food delivery marketplace to an AI-powered logistics platform is central to its investment story. At a high level, Swiggy monetises three layers: demand aggregation (customer app), supply orchestration (restaurants, dark stores, merchants), and a flexible delivery fleet. Over FY24–25, this stack has expanded to include food delivery, quick commerce (Instamart), dining-out and new convenience verticals.[5][6]

The AI layer sits in the middle. Swiggy uses algorithms to:

- Predict demand by time-of-day, locality and cuisine. - Price delivery fees and surge intelligently. - Optimise rider routing, batching and wait times. - Select optimal dark-store inventory for Instamart based on micro-local demand patterns.

Revenue streams:

- Commissions from restaurants and merchants. - Consumer delivery fees and convenience charges. - Advertising and sponsored listings on the app. - Platform fees, subscription products (Swiggy One), and ancillary services.

From an economics perspective, AI enhances two crucial levers: order density and route efficiency. Higher order density per zone reduces per-order fixed costs (hub, operations teams), while smarter routing and batching lower rider minutes per order. In Q2 FY26, Swiggy’s food delivery adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.8% of GOV indicates that at sufficient density, the model can throw off cash even at competitive pricing.[5]

For Indian financial professionals constructing models, this means:

- Projecting improvements in contribution margin as a function of order density rather than just time. - Explicitly modelling AI-driven efficiency gains (e.g., 50–100 bps margin expansion per year in food delivery under base case). - Stress-testing scenarios where AI delivers slower-than-expected gains, especially in Instamart, which still runs at an adjusted EBITDA margin of about -12.1%.[5]

Swiggy’s financials, especially post-IPO, offer a rich dataset for equity analysis. In FY25, revenue grew 35% to about ₹15,226.8 crore, but net loss deepened 33% to roughly ₹3,116.8 crore, underscoring the classic high-growth, high-burn trade-off.[3] In Q2 FY26, total income rose 52.5% year-on-year to ₹5,620 crore, while net loss for the quarter stood at about ₹1,092 crore, up 74.6% year-on-year but improving 8.8% sequentially.[2][4] Management commentary and quarterly filings highlight:

- Strong food delivery growth with improving adjusted EBITDA. - Rapid Instamart expansion with better contribution margins but still heavy EBITDA losses. - Cash balance around mid-single-thousand crore level, with ongoing cash burn per quarter.[4][5]

From a cash-flow perspective, Swiggy burned about ₹749 crore during the July–September quarter of FY26, down from ₹1,341 crore in the previous quarter, indicating improved capital efficiency even as it kept investing in Instamart.[4] However, the overall loss profile and competitive intensity imply that Swiggy may require additional capital raises over the medium term, which could impact dilution and valuation.[3][4]

Investors should also benchmark Swiggy against peers such as Zomato (with Blinkit), and quick-commerce players like Blinkit (within Zomato) and Zepto.

For financial professionals, Swiggy’s financial story in 2025 is ultimately about operational leverage: whether revenue can continue compounding at ~25–30% while fixed costs grow slower, allowing losses to shrink meaningfully.

The Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC), backed by DPIIT and regulated within India’s evolving e-commerce framework, is designed to unbundle discovery, ordering, and logistics. For Swiggy, ONDC is both a potential threat (commoditising discovery) and an opportunity (expanding logistics and merchant services). As an AI-first logistics player, Swiggy can plug into ONDC as:

- A buyer app acquiring new users who prefer ONDC front-ends but still rely on Swiggy’s delivery network. - A seller app or merchant aggregator onboarding restaurants and kirana stores onto ONDC. - A logistics service provider (LSP) fulfilling orders generated on other buyer apps.

This unbundling allows Swiggy to monetise its logistics rails beyond its own consumer app, in line with government’s push for interoperability and competition. For investors, ONDC introduces new revenue pools but also caps Swiggy’s ability to charge very high take-rates, as merchants gain alternative channels.

Compared with a closed, vertically integrated platform model, ONDC may push Swiggy closer to being a neutral logistics and enablement layer, similar to how UPI reshaped payment gateways. For retail investors, the analogy is that Swiggy could become the “UPI of hyperlocal delivery rails”, but only if it manages to scale logistics volumes and maintain a technological edge.

In practical terms, investors should monitor:

- Swiggy’s disclosures and commentary on ONDC order share and LSP volumes. - Whether ONDC leads to structurally lower CAC for Swiggy. - Regulatory developments from DPIIT and SEBI around data sharing, competition, and platform neutrality that may affect long-term margins.

Swiggy’s journey from startup to unicorn to listed company is a case study in Indian venture and public markets. Having raised multiple rounds from marquee investors such as Prosus, Accel and SoftBank in its private phase, Swiggy listed on Indian exchanges in November 2024, raising roughly $1.3 billion in its IPO.[3][6] The IPO proceeds, coupled with prior capital, have funded Instamart expansion, AI investments, and geographic growth.

By FY25, the company’s revenue surged to about ₹15,226.8 crore, but net loss widened to around ₹3,116.8 crore, prompting management to focus on capital efficiency and adjusted EBITDA improvement.[3] In 2025, Swiggy has also indicated an intent to strengthen reserves (targeting around ₹17,000 crore over time) to sustain its battles in quick commerce and logistics.[3]

The medium-term growth narrative revolves around:

- Expanding Instamart to deeper Tier 1 and Tier 2 penetration. - Enhancing AI to further boost order density and margins. - Leveraging ONDC and partnerships to open new demand channels.

For investors, mapping Swiggy’s path to profitability involves:

- Estimating the timeline for Instamart’s contribution breakeven based on current margin trajectory (-2.6% contribution, -12.1% adjusted EBITDA).[5] - Modelling gradual fixed-cost leverage in food delivery as GOV scales. - Incorporating potential dilution from future equity raises needed to fund capex and losses.