Polycab India Stock Analysis 2025: Record Q3 Wire Exports & ITI Capacity Expansion Ignite Multibagger Rally
Polycab India Ltd (NSE: POLYCAB), India's leading wires and cables manufacturer, has ignited investor excitement with its record-breaking Q3 FY26 results announced on January 16, 2026.
Polycab India Stock Analysis 2025: Record Q3 Wire Exports & ITI Capacity Expansion Ignite Multibagger Rally
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Polycab India Ltd (NSE: POLYCAB), India's leading wires and cables manufacturer, has ignited investor excitement with its record-breaking Q3 FY26 results announced on January 16, 2026. Consolidated net profit surged 52% YoY to ₹6,955 crore on revenue of ₹76,866 crore, up 46% YoY, driven by unprecedented wire exports and strategic capacity expansions at its ITI facilities. This performance not only beat market expectations but also signals a multibagger rally potential amid India's booming infrastructure and real estate sectors. With government capex at record highs via schemes like PM GatiShakti and Housing for All, Polycab's 26% market share in wires & cables positions it perfectly for sustained growth. The company's focus on export markets, now contributing significantly to topline, alongside FMEG diversification, enhances its resilience against domestic cyclicality. As shares trade at a forward P/E of 36x with analyst targets implying 20% upside, this analysis dissects the catalysts, financials, peer comparisons, and actionable strategies for Indian retail investors and professionals eyeing multibagger opportunities in 2025-26.
Q3 FY26 Results: Record Profits Amid Wire Export Boom
Polycab India's Q3 FY26 results, declared on January 16, 2026, showcased explosive growth, with consolidated net profit leaping 52% YoY to ₹6,955.36 crore from ₹4,580 crore in Q3 FY25. Revenue from operations skyrocketed 46.4% to ₹76,865.84 crore, surpassing analyst estimates and reflecting robust demand[1][2][4]. Wires & cables, the core segment contributing 89% of revenue, surged 54% YoY to ₹68,530 crore, fueled by record wire exports amid global supply chain shifts and India's competitive manufacturing edge[2]. EBITDA rose 34% to ₹9,661 crore, with margins at 12.6% despite higher input costs from revised labour codes[1][4].
Nine-month FY26 performance underscores momentum: revenue up 30% to ₹2,01,951 crore and net profit 40.5% higher at ₹19,166 crore[1]. Sequentially, Q3 profit jumped 50% over Q2's ₹4,637 crore (adjusted), highlighting operating leverage[4]. Management attributed growth to infrastructure spending (govt capex at ₹11.1 lakh crore in Budget 2025) and real estate revival, with private capex picking up post-elections[2].
Metric | Q3 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | YoY Growth | QoQ Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 76,866 | 52,511 | 46.4% | 18.7% |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | 6,955 | 4,580 | 52% | 50% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 9,661 | 7,200 | 34% | 25% |
| EPS (₹) | 95.2 | 62.7 | 52% | 50% |
*Table 1: Q3 FY26 Key Financials (Source: Company Filings, Jan 2026)[1][4]
Market reaction was mixed initially due to revenue miss perceptions in some reports, but shares rebounded on export strength. This positions Polycab to exceed FY26 guidance of ₹20,000 crore revenue early[3].
Export Surge: New Growth Engine
Record wire exports in Q3 marked a pivotal shift, with international revenue scaling steadily per MD Inder Jaisinghani[4]. Amid US-China trade tensions, Polycab captured Middle East and Africa markets, leveraging SEBI-compliant export incentives. Exports now ~15-20% of wires revenue, up from 10% last year, driving 54% segment growth[2]. This diversifies from domestic 80% reliance, mitigating risks from monsoon-impacted rural demand.
Risk: Currency volatility (USD/INR at 86.5), but natural hedge via imports reduces exposure.
ITI Capacity Expansion: Fueling 1.5x Wires Growth
Polycab's strategic expansion at ITI (Instruments & Tools India) facilities in Shahpur and Rohini adds 30% capacity, targeting 1.5x wires & cables growth by FY27[3]. Commissioned in Q3 FY26, this supports surging orders from infra projects like Bharatmala (₹1 lakh Cr Phase II). Capex of ₹800 Cr in FY26, funded via internal accruals (debt/equity 0.05x), ensures ROCE >25%[6].
FMEG segment grew 25% to ₹5,500 Cr, with fans/lighting gaining via e-commerce (30% sales). Project Spring, the 3-year capex plan (₹2,000 Cr total), emphasizes backward integration, reducing raw copper dependency (60% costs).
Peer | Market Cap (₹ Cr) | P/E (x) | ROE (%) | Revenue Growth FY26 (9M, %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polycab | 1,07,247 | 36.2 | 24.5 | 30 |
| Havells | 95,000 | 47.2 | 15.2 | 18 |
| KEI Ind. | 42,500 | 42.1 | 22.1 | 25 |
| Syska (Unlisted) | N/A | N/A | 18 | 20 |
*Table 2: Wires & Cables Peers Comparison (As of Jan 2026, Screener/LSEG)[2][6]
Polycab leads on growth and efficiency, trading at 20% discount to Havells on EV/EBITDA (25x vs 32x)[2].
Capex Breakdown & ROI Projections
ITI expansion: ₹500 Cr for wires lines, ROI expected at 35% within 2 years via 20% volume uplift. Total FY26 capex ₹800 Cr (40% wires, 30% FMEG, 30% exports).
• Projections: FY26 revenue ₹2.6 lakh Cr (+22% YoY), EPS ₹350 (+14%). • Analyst Consensus: 27 analysts rate BUY, mean target ₹7,500 (20% upside from ₹6,250)[2][5].
Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | CAGR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 14,109 | 2,657 | 36.4 | - |
| FY25 | 20,000* | 3,800 | 52 | 42 |
| FY26E | 26,000 | 5,800 | 79 | 30 |
*Guidance surpassed. Table 3: Historical & Projected Financials (Company/SimplyWallSt)[3][5]
Valuation & Multibagger Potential
At ₹6,250 (Jan 17, 2026), Polycab trades at 36x FY26E P/E, justified by 19% profit CAGR forecasts[2][5]. Vs peers, it's attractive on PEG (1.9x) amid 16% revenue growth outlook. Market cap ₹1,07,247 Cr, 52W H/L ₹6,800/₹4,500[6]. Dividend yield 0.48%, payout 20%.
Pros vs Cons:
Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Market leader (26% share) | High valuation (36x P/E) |
| Export diversification | Commodity price volatility (copper) |
| Strong balance sheet (Net cash) | Competition from unorganized (40% mkt) |
| Infra tailwinds (₹11L Cr capex) | Labour cost hikes (new codes) |
*Table 4: Pros vs Cons
Actionable: Accumulate on dips <₹6,000, target ₹8,000 by FY27 (28% upside).
Risk-Return Matrix
Beta 1.2, Sharpe 1.4 (3Y). Risks: Copper prices (+15% CY25), SEBI scrutiny on related-party (cleared FY25). Upside: PLI extension, realty boom (sales +25% YoY).
Scenario | Probability | Target Price (₹) | Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (Exports 25%) | 60% | 8,500 | 36 |
| Base | 30% | 7,500 | 20 |
| Bear (Copper spike) | 10% | 5,500 | -12 |
*Table 5: Scenario Analysis (Author Estimates based on [5])
Investment Strategies for Indian Investors
For retail: SIP via demat (Zerodha/Groww), allocate 5-10% portfolio. Pros target 15-20% CAGR. Monitor Q4 results (Feb 2026). DII stake 12%, FII 18% - positive flows[6]. Compare with sector ETF (Nifty Infra).
Strategy | Entry | Target | Stop Loss | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIP | ₹6,000-6,500 | ₹8,000 | ₹5,500 | 12-18M |
| Lump Sum | Dip 5% | ₹7,500 | 10% trail | 6-12M |
*Table 6: Actionable Strategies
Tax: LTCG >₹1.25L at 12.5% post Budget 2024.
Peer & Sector Benchmark
Wires sector P/E 40x avg, Polycab undervalued on growth. Nifty 500 return 18% CY25 vs Polycab 25%[6]. Top holding in HDFC Flexi Cap (2.1%).
Disclaimer: IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This analysis is generated using artificial intelligence and is NOT a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any stock. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and platform are not responsible for any investment losses.
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